0 comments on “Book Review: Principles. By Ray Dalio”

Book Review: Principles. By Ray Dalio

Ray Dalio has founded and leads one of the worlds largest and most successful hedge funds, Bridgewater, worth 150 Billion$. Last year, and with great media fanfare, he launched his book to explain to the world his management philosophy. It’s a best seller, which is not surprising, given Mr. Dalio’s stellar reputation in the dominant business sector of our time: The guys making huge piles of money out of money: Hedge funds. Does all this money make Hedge funds or investment banks the real rulers of the world? You bet. The US government, the Senate, the Fed, International Institutions, the European Central Bank, the World Bank  – all full of ex-Investment Banker in leading positions. Even the former FBI director James Comey was a Bridgewater employee. The Masters of the Universe – and Dalio is one of the Grand-Masters of the Universe.

If a Grand-Master speaks out, you better listen. So I did. I read the book already a couple of months ago and did write a post about Bridgewater’s practices:  The World’s Leading Hedgefund is Relying on Key Principles of Self-Managed Organizations. But I delayed writing a full review: I was befuddled by what I read.

Outlandish, Orwellian Management Practices

Mr. Dalio is spelling out over 200 principles of “Work and Life,” principle by principles. Like the great Roman Emperor Marcus Aurelius did in his “Meditations.” How fitting.

Irony aside, I actually like the clarity and to read about the accumulated wisdom of thoughtful people. And Mr. Dalio is very thoughtful. He is driven by his worldviews, especially on management, and he share’s it with us. I think that’s grand, mainly because the management practices he employs are often so extreme and apparently over the top:

  • Video Taping all Meetings. All.
  • Giving performance feedback in real time during a meeting of every participant to let the person know how she is doing
  • The “Pain Button” app where people can describe their emotional stress and share it with others
  • The “Dispute Collector” app where people can mediate their interpersonal conflicts guided by a machine

Orwellian speech is rampant in “Principles.” Mr. Dalio talks of “tough love,” or “shoot your friend,” – all for the service of the collective.

The Rule of the Fittest

My favorite example of all those management practices is to let people vote on decisions while weighing these decisions with the “believability” of the person: An “Idea Meritocracy” where every person is eligible to vote, but only the most knowledgeable votes carry decisive weight. The believability is determined by their track records, test results, and other data. In other words: The reign of competence, instead of a reign of populists. Wow!

If only the standards that determine believability can be kept “objective” and free of corruption. Mr. Dalio doesn’t explain how to do that, but my hunch is Discipline. Adherence to formal systems, to the principles underlying the believability algorithm. Adherence to the formal system is prominent in Mr. Dalio’s business empire. Comply with the system or be fired. The attrition rate of new and very carefully selected employees is about 30% within the first year. And Bridgewater is very Elitist in selecting candidates in the first place.

Psychological safety, i.e., a safe place to speak up without the fear of retaliation, is a key feature of learning organizations or any organizations aiming at achieving innovations. Dissenters need to be encouraged. And yes, Bridgewater is a safe place to speak up, with even brutal honesty, as Mr. Dalio writes. People may even raise dissent with the system, and principles might evolve in consequence, if its ruling hierarchs choose to adopt them. But chances are that fear is rampant. Not the fear to speak up, but the fear of acting in a dissenting way, which is not in compliance with the ruling system, the principles. If everything is taped and visible to everyone, political correctness rules, and human fallibilities are suppressed. But control is maximized, too.

The central metaphor for the business which Dalio uses right at the start of the book is the machine. And as cogs in a machine people got to be kept inline, disciplined. Add to that that Mr. Dalio is very close to central figures of China’s ruling party, a country where a  lot of experimentation in social control is ongoing, and the pictures become genuinely, outlandish dystopian.

And whats more: His practices are actually embraced by Robert Kegan, a Harvard Professor of Psychology and one of the worlds leading proponent of the “learning organizations”. Money, Power, and Academia united to create a Dystopia. A possible future where the Rationale, Analytic, Performing runs Amok creating a new super-collective of connected super-minds, where the apparently “dumb” are ignored by the (believability) algorithm. This is can be labeled and sold as “Intelligent Democracy”: The rule of the one with the most merits. Not far from Darwins “The rule of the fittest”.

A Great Experiment

Let’s look at the bright side. It’s is a great experiment based on many of the principles of movements like Agile, Lean, the Learning Organization, Leading Management thinkers and Behavioral Organizational Psychologists propose:

  • Build more reflection into daily work routines in order to enable learning
  • Trust more in the power of the collective than in individual decisions makers through structured exchanges that drive out biases, to come up with better decisions
  • Give everyone a voice and a place and time to speak out
  • Use data gained from objective and subjective sources extensively
  • Address all level of the Organization simultaneously:  Mind-Sets, Principles, and Practices
  • Seek organizational growth in the inert, personal growth of individuals

Looking at Mr. Dalio’s work this way, there is a lot to learn about Bridgewater. Therefore reading “Principles” is absolutely recommended.

Long live Hierarchy & Control!

The most remarkable thing is, Mr. Dalio has added all these routines on top of the traditional management hierarchy.

tvb.png

(For more on Management Practices and Maturity Level check out some of the previous blog posts 76 Agile Workouts & A Fish and Let a Thousand Nerds Blossom!)

In all of the 539 pages, he does not write a single line about self-managed teams. But the other times he uses the prefix “self” is revealing: Self-accountability, self-discipline, self-reflection, self-accountability. It is the individual how needs to better herself. By sticking to the collective rules set by, well Mr. Dalio. Or the Chinese communist party…

Mr. Dalio trusts the individual to get better under guidance, he trusts collective, believable weighted votings, as long as

  • Superiors may veto any decision and
  • Mr. Dalio (or a governing elite) sets the rules

At the heart, Mr. Dalio’s vision is not about liberation. It is about performance. About making money. If what it takes to make money is to develop individuals, so be it.

But Control is central. Full stop.

Bridgewater might be a great Place for Fawning Alphas

I like organizational designs more that give space for autonomy (a word not found anywhere in the book) and non-mainstream people – call them beta if you want.

Whats more, true innovativeness will not come from an environment that is purely ratio driven and relegates fun to an emotion that is to be reflected on and analyzed – all in the service of big performance equation that is to be solved.

The featured sentence on the promotional page of “Principles” is “Principles are ways of successfully dealing with reality to get what you want out of life“.

A bigger car, I guess. This Hedgefond even wants to exploit life itself. Putting such a line in front of the whole work shows what Frederick Laloux would call intensely “orange” beliefs, beliefs bred in the industrial revolution: It’s about getting things, about scarcity, about accumulating, and finally about consuming life itself.

I am a bit harsh, though. It’s is worthwhile reading:

 It shows how the application of Agile/Lean/ Behavioral Sciences while being stuck in a Mindset of scarcity and control – instead of abundance and exploration- may quickly lead to dystopia.

___

This is what I think. What do you think?

 

Sources

 

 

 

 

0 comments on “Experimental Management”

Experimental Management

Meet Emil and Marc. Emil just signed a contract to work for Marc. This makes Emil an employee and Marc a manager. With his signature, Emil has agreed to follow the orders of Marc. Disobedience is an option, but it comes with the risks of being fired.

Marc the manager points Eric to chop a stack of wood. By doing this Marc is using the most basic form of a management practice, the direct order. Next day, Marc orders Eric to stack the firewood on a need pile in that corner over there. On the third day, Marc is late. Eric sees a stack of wood, and being human and not an automaton, starts to chop it, like on day one. Without knowing, Eric has developed a job description for himself: “My job is to chop wood and staple it”. The job description is another basic form of a management practice. It spares Marc the Manager the time and effort to direct Eric. Unlike a robot Eric the Employee is able to see the work and do it, without being ordered. Marc may continue to supervise Eric, but he might find a better use of his time in carting the firewood to the market and sell it.

One day, after a heavy rainfall, Eric sees that the roof of the shack, where the firewood is stored, needs repairs. Without being ordered, he fixes the roof. What Eric did is to use his judgment of Marc’s interest and decided to act autonomously. Marc has not directed Eric to do that, but Eric has developed a sense of purpose in his work, and chances are that he feels responsible for it. Marcs comes back later in the day and wonders that Eric has not produced his usual stack size of firewood, but he sees that the shack is repaired. Marc may tell off Eric for not making the numbers, but he decides to praise Eric for having taken the initiative and prioritizing repairing the shack over his chopping duties. Thereby Marc has embraced another two basic management practices: Feedback and Delegation. Eric is no longer just following orders but he is empowered to do other things necessary to keep up the production of firewood.

Why has Marc opted to praise Eric and accept his autonomous acting? Marc, hard pressed to make living out of his business, see’s those management practices as being efficient. In his mind, Eric has saved him a lot of trouble, as wet firewood doesn’t sell. Marc may not know it, but he has developed the performance hypothesis in his mind that Job Descriptions, Feedback, and Delegation produce better results, than just ordering Eric the Employee around. Marc the Manager benefits from adopting those Management practices. Eric the employee likes being responsible, too, which is part of why these management practices are working. But even if Marc didn’t give a damn about Eric, he knows he would hurt himself by not employing these practices.

Over time Marc might decide to adopt other management practices, like

  • a regular, weekly meeting to discuss issues
  • providing a budget to Marc that he can spend on axes or saws
  • a bonus scheme based on Erics productivity
  • job sharing, so that Eric is assisting Marc at the market from time to time, in order to get a larger picture of his duties and exposure to customers
  • Annual objective setting and performance review  to clarify high-level targets for Erics work

Marc the manager will introduce and maintain these management practices only if he expects that these contribute to the performance. Margins in the firewood business are so slim these days.

The Case for Constant Experimentation with Management Practices

Shouldn’t any company seek to emulate Marc’s way of working? Things like…

  • Adding new management practices if they work
  • Getting rid of those that don’t seem to work
  • Constantly adapting practices to the need of the business

In a business world that is ever-changing, why do we emphasize so much the need to act like a daring entrepreneur, who finds ever better problem-solution fits, but overwhelmingly fail to engage in experiments with the very ways we are working together? Instead of seeking to constantly improve our way of collaborating with one another, we focus hard on business models, productivity figures, financial performance.

Marc would see that fixation with direct business results as being silly. Results are important, yes, but they can not be enforced directly. Instead, they need to be approached obliquely, by working better together. If we can achieve that, results are not guaranteed, but they will come much more easily.

What is a business if not a sum of decisions taken at all levels of the company? If we can just increase the quality of decisions by some minuscule percentage point, isn’t a companies performance bound to increase? Better management practices result in better decisions result in better performance.

Management practices are like the underlying factors of a companies performance formula.

  • Company Performance = f (Strategy, Execution, Chance)
  • Strategy and Execution = f (Management Practices, Chance)

In other words management practices, the way work in done, influence a companies ability to come up with a good direction (strategy) and competent implementation (execution).

This sounds like a no-brainer. But there are three caveats with this logic:

  1. Managers do not care too much about the performance of management practices
  2. Owners care about performance, but can’t really observe the impact of management practices on performance
  3. The empiric, scientific evidence of the link between management practices and company performance is weak

Manager’s Do Not Care so Much About Performant Management Practices

Marc the manager holds four distinct advantages over most other managers:

  1. Direct Feedback: The impact that the management practices he adopts have on Eric’s performance are very direct
  2. Underlying simplicity: The firewood business is simple. Causes and effects are directly visible
  3. Small numbers: It’s just Eric the employee, not a group of employees or a host of departments to coordinate. This spares Marc the manager from the otherwise inevitable power and social dynamics
  4. No agency problem: Marc is the owner and the manager. He is able to prioritize performance of the business very highly – his performance and the business’s performance are the same. Managers, who are not owners, quickly see their well being and the businesses well being as two separate things
  5. No ingrained, legacy practices: Most managers join companies that have a certain way to do things, a certain management culture. It’s much harder to experiment with management practices if social norms are already firmly entrenched

For a typical modern-day manager, it is not only much harder to see whether his way of managing works better than other ways. On top of that, an employed manager does not even share the same passion for performance than an owner. Risk minimization by not sticking out one’s neck, social conformity and self-optimization might be more important than performance optimization. The fact that the performance of one’s management practices employed can’t be measured easily compounds this agency problem.

The result is that performance becomes a secondary concern while selecting management practices. Control is much more important.

Owners Can’t Really Tell What Management Practices Work

Owners care about performant management practices, don’t they? After all, it is their money that is wasted. But even owners care for performant management practices is limited:

  • Ownership might be diluted. If an ownership share is sufficiently small, influence is very limited.
  • The Agency problem, again: Managers, who are in day to day contact with the business know a lot more about the business they are managing than owners. Owners might employ a few checks on managerial powers here and there, but finally, owners have no option, but to trust.
  • There are other factors easily observable, like those found in the P&L or balance sheet. By their very nature management practices do not lend themselves to be measured in hard numbers. Humankind is excellent at measuring financial systems, but we suck at measuring social systems

The point that I am making is not that no one is not concerned with the performance of organizations. Indeed, there are many people caring about profits and corporate outlooks. The point I am trying to make is:  Few people are making a major effort to influence the performance of an organization by virtue of its management practices.

Science found a bit of evidence, just a bit

Financial performance is a primary concern for any company. But it is usually tackled head-on by looking at market share, product portfolio, customer bases, competition, cost structures, distribution networks, business models etc. Management practices get into view only with hindsight: If a company is successful, it must have great management practices. Phil Rosenzweig, a professor at IMD in Lausanne,  has written a whole book about the ex-post sanctioning of management practices. He named this the “Halo Effect”. Huge business books bestsellers like Jim Collins “Good to Great” or its predecessor “Built to Last” or Robert Watermans “In Search of Excellence” fell for the Halo effect. Great stories, but no scientific value.

But there are a few recent studies that imply a link between good management practices and a companies performance. According to one of those (Bloom et al 2011)  management practices explain about 10% of the success of companies. And according to another study (Bloom, Mahajan, McKenzie 2011) that link is causal, i.e. management practices improved first, company results followed.

That is not overwhelmingly strong evidence. But this is only natural: We just can’t measure social matters with the same exactness as physics. Social systems are highly idiosyncratic things. Take for example the human invention of the stock market. The way prices on the stock market are determined is a result of the human social system, the value humans attach to the stocks listed. Despite hundreds of billions of investment, no one can predict stock values with any certainty. Great efforts are being made in analyzing stocks, but finally, all this effort is undermined because we suck at measuring social systems. It hard to predict human behavior with certainty. Social systems are even more complex than the individual human actor, so science is bound to fail. There are no social physics, no immutable rules. There are things that appear to work for a time, but that is no guarantee that those correlations will hold in the future.

Experimental Management

To sum up my argument:

  1. There is a clear logical link between management practice and a companies performance. The sum of all decisions of all employees should make a great deal of difference to a companies success.
  2. There is academic evidence of this link, but it is weak
  3. Owners and Managers prefer management practices that work over optimal management practices. All sing the hymn of performance, but asymmetrical information, the pure opacity of causes and effects in social systems and individual incentives let them focus on the observable, largely financial facts, instead of the underlying intangible social performance of the organization

My point is:

  • If we can’t say what management practice is really working, why are nearly all companies keeping their management practices static?
  • Do such companies suppose they already found the optimum?
  • Those companies implicitly assume that there is nothing to gain from experimenting with management practices
  • Is it not silly that Lean Start-ups, Entrepreneurial and Agile Movements all have a strong emphasis on experimentation, but experimentation with management practices are of a (at best) secondary concern for most companies trying to become fit for the Digital Age?

Therefore, I suggest Experimental Management. If we don’t know what works best at that time, we need to try things, observe the effects and tune and tune and tune our way of “doing things in a group”, of managing.

We do not need big theories of Leadership and Management for this. We just need to experiment and watch. In other words, managers need to work empirically, not ideologically. Find out what works themselves and not following snake oil selling business book authors, leadership gurus or opinionated non-empirically focused consultants.

Liberation?

Experimental Management is a term that is slightly provocative to our cultural norms. First, we expect competent management that knows which practice works. Dabbling in management practices smells like incompetence. We want certainty. For certainty, we are ready to prefer the professional illusionist to the empirically driven realist.

Second, we shouldn’t subject humans to experiments. Manipulating humans is rightly abhorred. We value freedom and self-fulfillment.

My hunch is that experimenting with better ways to work, will lead to more freedom and more self-fulfillment in the workplace. Why? The only way to get better decisions is to employ the abilities and senses of all the people in an organization. And we can’t get that level of engagement without offering more freedom and self-fulfillment.

The arch-capitalist quest for performance might just end up liberating people. 

___

Sources:

  • Rosenzweig, Phil “The Halo Effect”
  • Bloom et al “Mangement Practices Across Firms and Countries”
  • More information about research on the link between management practices and companies performance can be found on WorldManagementSurvey.org